SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025