SPC Jun 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern
Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential
for corridors of wind damage.  Other areas of severe storms will be
possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi
westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the
southern High Plains.

...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight...
Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an
MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. 
Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the
80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient
downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a
wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent
TN across AL to GA.  Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term
details.  Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this
evening/early tonight while moving into SC.  

In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm
development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective
front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL.  The specific
corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow
progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be
possible later this afternoon into tonight.

...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening...
Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface
heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated
thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. 
There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from
initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into
the northwest TX Panhandle this evening.  Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective
bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km
will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe
outflow gusts for a few hours this evening.

...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening...
The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a
strong cap.  Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow
boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm
development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. 
If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells
capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts
for a few hours this evening.  This area will be re-evaluated for a
possible upgrade at 20z.

...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening...
As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from
northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential
for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of
the midlevel vorticity center.  Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in
the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in
vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches.  However, fairly
widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of
the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best
characterized as marginal.

...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening...
A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in
association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. 
Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain
rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected
along the front this afternoon.  Gusty outflow winds and some hail
may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this
afternoon/evening.

..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025

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