SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025