SPC Jun 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A line of storms will progress across the Carolinas with a continued
damaging gust threat. Thunderstorms, accompanied by an occasional
wind/hail threat will also persist for a few hours this evening
across the Southeast. A brief tornado remains possible with storms
across portions of the Ohio Valley. Finally, strong storms may
produce severe wind/hail along the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow is overspreading the central and
eastern CONUS, with a pronounced mid-level trough currently
traversing the Upper MS Valley. A belt of stronger mid-level flow
and corresponding deeper-layer shear is overspreading the southern
Plains to the southeastern Atlantic Coastline, where moderate to
strong buoyancy remains in place. Despite overall weak synoptic
forcing for ascent, multiple areas of scattered thunderstorms,
driven by mesoscale forcing mechanisms, persist amid the
aforementioned favorable buoyancy/shear to support a continued
threat for severe convective hazards.

...Southern High Plains...
Multiple supercell structures are in progress along the TX/NM
border, and these storms will continue southeast along a diffuse
baroclinic boundary with a continued severe wind/hail threat. This
boundary extends from the central TX Panhandle into central OK. It
is unclear if additional storms will form east along the boundary,
and further south along the dryline into west-central TX given
overall weak forcing. However, south of the boundary and east of the
dryline, 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE are
in place, and modestly agitated CU prevail along the aforementioned
boundaries. As such, Slight Risk probabilities were kept in place
despite concerns for storm initiation and coverage given the
conditional risk for severe wind/hail with any storms that manage to
form. 

...Southeast States...
In the wake of an earlier MCS, ample diurnal heating has allowed for
modification of the boundary layer, with surface temperatures able
to reach 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding 2000-3000
MLCAPE amid weak MLCINH. Several strong thunderstorms have developed
over southern AR and are poised to drift into MS and perhaps western
AL into the early overnight hours. Given 40-50 kts of effective bulk
shear overspreading this environment, severe gusts and hail are the
primary concerns. 

...Carolinas...
A long-lived cold-pool-driven MCS continues to advance across SC,
with a history of prolific damaging gust production (including
measured severe gusts). This MCS is propagating eastward at roughly
40-50 kts, suggesting that the cold pool is still potentially
deep/strong, with internal-forcing mechanisms such as a rear-inflow
jet present. When also considering the mid to upper 80s F surface
temperatures preceding the MCS, along with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE,
ample buoyancy remains for continued damaging/severe gust production
for at least a few more hours this evening, perhaps to the Atlantic
Coastline. 

...Portions of the OH Valley...
A few small supercell structures, with a recent history of at least
one tornado, persist ahead of a broadening MCV in eastern MO. Given
ample buoyancy ahead of these storms across the OH Valley region,
including 150+ J/kg 0-3 km CAPE, 50+ kts of effective bulk shear,
and at least modest amounts of vertical-oriented low-level
vorticity, these supercell structures may persist with a sparse wind
gust/tornado threat for at least a few more hours.

..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025

StormPrep