SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on Monday into Monday evening. ...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... While there is some uncertainty regarding the intensity/organization and location of the overnight MCS early Monday morning, the general consensus within the guidance places its associated vorticity max and surface low over the eastern vicinity. Expectation is then for this low and vorticity max to continue eastward into the moist and moderately buoyant airmass downstream across the Southeast. Thunderstorms appear likely in the vicinity of these features, including well downstream during the afternoon as boundary layer destabilizes and along the trailing composite outflow that will likely maintain its integrity. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, particularly across central MS/AL where a corridor of greater severe potential may materialize. Uncertainty (primarily related to limited predictability of the system's speed) in this corridor remains too high to outline any higher probabilities with this outlook, but an upgrade may be needed in later outlooks. ...OH/TN Valleys... A plume of moderate to high PWs is forecast extend along the frontal zone from the Mid-South northeastward through the middle OH Valley Monday morning. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through the base of a stacked cyclone moving from the Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. This shortwave will encourage an eastward push to the cold front, while also contributing to strengthening mid-level flow across the region. The stronger winds will likely be confined to the mid/upper OH Valley, and mostly behind the front, with the most likely area of some overlap over OH and PA. However, this region will be displaced north of the better buoyancy, which is anticipated farther south over KY and TN. This displacement should temper the overall storm severity, but occasionally strong to severe are still possible throughout this entire corridor. Scattered damaging winds will be the primary risk, although lower-probability tornado and isolated severe hail risks also exist. ...Southern High Plains... The airmass across the region will likely begin the period behind the outflow of an extensive overnight MCS. However, these relatively cool and dry conditions are expected to modify quickly amid strong heating. A sharpening lee trough will also encourage backing low-level flow throughout the day, from northerly to easterly (or even southeasterly), with some low-level moisture advection possible. These factors could allow convection that initially develops over the higher terrain to persist eastward/southeastward into more of the High Plains, with an attendant threat for strong gusts. The modifying outflow could act as a favorable corridor for forward propagation and increase damaging gust potential during the evening. ...Southwest/Central/Southeast TX... The outflow of an extensive overnight MCS will likely arc from northern LA through central TX into southwest TX early Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this boundary as it gradually shifts southward throughout the day. Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected across southeast TX, with warm low/mid-levels and associated capping should limit the overall thunderstorm coverage westward. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible with any storms that develop. ...Northwest TX... Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front on Monday. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for a few storms capable of severe hail. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025