SPC Jun 8, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
While there is some uncertainty regarding the intensity/organization
and location of the overnight MCS early Monday morning, the general
consensus within the guidance places its associated vorticity max
and surface low over the eastern vicinity. Expectation is then for
this low and vorticity max to continue eastward into the moist and
moderately buoyant airmass downstream across the Southeast.
Thunderstorms appear likely in the vicinity of these features,
including well downstream during the afternoon as boundary layer
destabilizes and along the trailing composite outflow that will
likely maintain its integrity. Damaging gusts will be the primary
risk, particularly across central MS/AL where a corridor of greater
severe potential may materialize. Uncertainty (primarily related to
limited predictability of the system's speed) in this corridor
remains too high to outline any higher probabilities with this
outlook, but an upgrade may be needed in later outlooks.

...OH/TN Valleys...
A plume of moderate to high PWs is forecast extend along the frontal
zone from the Mid-South northeastward through the middle OH Valley
Monday morning. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through
the base of a stacked cyclone moving from the  Upper Midwest into
the Upper Great Lakes. This shortwave will encourage an eastward
push to the cold front, while also contributing to strengthening
mid-level flow across the region. The stronger winds will likely be
confined to the mid/upper OH Valley, and mostly behind the front,
with the most likely area of some overlap over OH and PA. However,
this region will be displaced north of the better buoyancy, which is
anticipated farther south over KY and TN. This displacement should
temper the overall storm severity, but occasionally strong to severe
are still possible throughout this entire corridor. Scattered
damaging winds will be the primary risk, although lower-probability
tornado and isolated severe hail risks also exist.

...Southern High Plains...
The airmass across the region will likely begin the period behind
the outflow of an extensive overnight MCS. However, these relatively
cool and dry conditions are expected to modify quickly amid strong
heating. A sharpening lee trough will also encourage backing
low-level flow throughout the day, from northerly to easterly (or
even southeasterly), with some low-level moisture advection
possible. These factors could allow convection that initially
develops over the higher terrain to persist eastward/southeastward
into more of the High Plains, with an attendant threat for strong
gusts. The modifying outflow could act as a favorable corridor for
forward propagation and increase damaging gust potential during the
evening.

...Southwest/Central/Southeast TX...
The outflow of an extensive overnight MCS will likely arc from
northern LA through central TX into southwest TX early Monday
morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this boundary as
it gradually shifts southward throughout the day. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected across southeast TX, with warm
low/mid-levels and associated capping should limit the overall
thunderstorm coverage westward. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are
possible with any storms that develop.

...Northwest TX...
Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level warm
theta-e advection north of the front on Monday. Sufficient effective
bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for a few storms capable
of severe hail.

..Mosier.. 06/08/2025

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