MD 1192 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389… FOR ARKLATEX INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/AL
Mesoscale Discussion 1192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of northern MS/AL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389... Valid 080429Z - 080600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated severe storms may continue into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to potentially severe storms are ongoing in a corridor from southern AR into northern MS. The environment remains favorable for supercells, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg, and 40+ kt of effective shear. However, midlevel lapse rates are rather weak with warm temperatures aloft, and most storms thus far have struggled to maintain severe intensity. Some increase in storm coverage remains possible with time within a modest low-level warm-advection regime, including the potential for occasional supercells with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. With time, some severe threat may spread out of WW 389 to the east and south. Some local expansion of WW 389 may eventually be needed (where possible), but additional watch issuance into a less unstable environment across AL is uncertain, and will depend on short-term observational trends as storms approach the edge of the watch. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34259480 34609199 34849030 35128843 35188766 34488750 34008752 33688756 33288757 33028775 32669129 32619392 32859433 32939467 33249483 34259480 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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