SPC MD 1196

MD 1196 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK

Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081604Z - 081800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms may produce isolated large hail and
strong gusts through early afternoon before more intense convection
develops by mid/late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends have shows towering cumulus
and isolated thunderstorm development late this morning in a
low-level warm advection regime. Strong capping is still in place
across the region, with temperatures still mainly in the 70s in the
OK/TX Panhandles, through strong heating is occurring and
temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s across western OK.
This initial thunderstorm activity will remain elevated, but could
become surface based over the next few hours via mixing and
additional heating/moistening. Regardless, this convection is
developing within a strong MUCAPE gradient near the western OK/TX
Panhandle border, and within 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes.
Very steep midlevel lapse rates are also in place across the region.
As a result, even this initially elevated convection could pose a
risk for large hail. 

The need for a watch with this early activity is uncertain and
trends will be monitored. Additional, more intense and surface-based
convection is still expected to develop by mid/late afternoon and
will be addressed in subsequent MCDs as the risk evolves over time.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34160172 34660193 35390179 36540144 36650120 36660082
            36640014 36199966 34839913 33919907 33429916 33199937
            33170000 33260062 33540109 34110168 34160172 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

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