MD 1197 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF VA/MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of VA/MD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081704Z - 081830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms are
possible through the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main
hazard but a tornado and sporadic hail also are possible.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is develop early this afternoon in
a weakly unstable airmass in the vicinity of an effective warm front
draped across northern VA toward coastal MD. As additional heating
occurs over the Blue Ridge, thunderstorm coverage should increase
and storms will move across the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity
through the afternoon. Overall instability and midlevel lapse rates
will remain modest. However, effective shear around 30-40 kt will
support organized cells. Where steeper low-level lapse rates develop
amid stronger heating, strong/severe gusts will be possible.
Low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced along the warm front, as
is evident in the LWX VWP, which shows a mildly enlarged and
favorably curved low-level hodograph. Rotating storms interacting
with the warm front could pose a risk for a brief tornado or two.
The area is being evaluated for possible watch issuance.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 38987851 39297781 39267736 39157695 38847623 38407580
37587544 36967538 36607571 36577610 36557726 36777834
37207889 38027910 38577893 38987851
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN