A few scattered showers have already developed this morning along the coastal Panhandle as a frontal boundary continues to dip into the Southeast U.S.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the afternoon and evening hours along the I-10 corridor as the front continues to dip towards the Panhandle (25-55% chance of rain).
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across North Florida as embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph), large hail (quarter-size) and locally heavy rainfall across North Florida.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is also outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across North Florida as multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall could bring instances offlash flooding.
Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be anticipated, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-6” possible.
Drier conditions will linger throughout the Peninsula with the help of Saharan Dry Air suppressing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, but isolated to widely scattered activity will remain possible (15-35% chance of rain).
Warm and muggy conditions can be expected as high temperatures throughout the state will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon.
Feels-like temperatureswill climb into the middle 90s to middle 100s, remaining just below heat advisory criteria.
Computer model guidance continues to show another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing late this evening and into the overnight hours behind the activity from earlier in the day (30-65% chance of rain).
There remains some uncertainty with this possible second round as it will likely depend on the timing of both rounds, as well as how much energy the first round takes away from the environment.
A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected along all Florida Panhandle beaches, with a moderate risk along the Space Coast.
Wave heights along the Panhandle will gradually increase to 3′ this afternoon with isolated breaking waves upwards of 4′.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.