Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight. ...01Z Update... A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air. Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development early this evening. However, outside of the southern Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane with the loss of daytime heating. In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight, generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle through north Texas. Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor. Although low-level wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the frontal zone across western North Texas. Otherwise, a seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone, contributing to strong deep-layer shear. Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/09/2025
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