Official

SPC Jun 9, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
It still appears that clusters of strong to severe thunderstorm
development across the Texas Panhandle into Red River Valley
vicinity will consolidate into a gradually organizing and more
prominent cluster of storms this evening, accompanied by increasing
potential for widespread damaging wind gusts across northern Texas
and adjacent portions of southern Oklahoma overnight.

...01Z Update...
A weak cold front continues to advance southeast of the upper Great
Lakes region, through the middle Mississippi Valley and south
central Great Plains, downstream of deep mid-level troughing and an
embedded cyclone digging across the Canadian/U.S. border through the
northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.  This is
preceded by a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Atlantic
Seaboard into the southern Great Plains, which has been enhanced to
the lee of the southern Rockies through the southern Great Plains by
strong differential surface heating beneath warm elevated
mixed-layer air.

Both boundaries remain the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development early this evening.  However, outside of the southern
Great Plains, most of this activity is likely to continue to wane
with the loss of daytime heating.

In the presence of steeper lapse rates across the southern Great
Plains, stronger lingering potential instability still appears
likely to support an increasing risk of severe weather overnight,
generally focused along the southern/remnant baroclinic zone now
extending across or south of the southern portions of the Texas
Panhandle through north Texas.  Mixed-layer CAPE still appears on
the order of 3000-4000 J/kg along this corridor.  Although low-level
wind fields remain generally weak, at least modest strengthening of
a nocturnal low-level jet may occur to the east of lee surface
troughing, across the Texas South Plains into the vicinity of the
frontal zone across western North Texas.  Otherwise, a seasonably
strong west-northwesterly mid/upper jet streak (40-70+ kt in the
500-300 mb layer) appears to be propagating along the frontal zone,
contributing to strong deep-layer shear.

Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential
convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across
parts of northern Texas.  Model output indicating some of the more
intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least
some, in intensity.  Regardless, there has been a consistent signal
that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River
vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening
cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with
intensifying rear inflow.  Given the environment, this still appears
possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of
potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the
Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight.

..Kerr.. 06/09/2025

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