MD 1217 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399… FOR PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...Parts of north/central/east TX into western LA and
extreme southeast OK/southwest AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...
Valid 090429Z - 090600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
continues.
SUMMARY...Swaths of damaging wind are possible into the overnight.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow echo has evolved across northeast
TX, with regional radars suggesting the presence of a rather strong
rear-inflow jet. There is some lingering influence of earlier
convection and related outflow downstream of this bow, but given its
current organized state and the presence of favorable buoyancy and
deep-layer shear, an organized damaging-wind threat (with gusts
potentially 75 mph or greater) is likely to continue southeastward
into at least the early overnight hours. Line-embedded tornadoes
also cannot be ruled out.
Farther west, southward-moving outflow has resulted in measured
severe gusts across parts of the DFW Metroplex. A small bowing
segment with embedded supercells (the remnant of an earlier
long-lived supercell cluster) has recently intensified and produced
a 60 kt gust in Mineral Wells. This eastward-moving bow is
intersecting the southward-moving outflow, and may continue eastward
across parts of the Metroplex with a continued severe-wind threat,
and possibly a tornado in the vicinity of the intersecting outflow
boundaries.
Some severe threat may eventually spread east and south of WW 399,
and local watch expansion and/or new watch issuance may eventually
be needed.
..Dean/Gleason.. 06/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31859320 31169442 31049644 31549777 32499795 32809777
33119590 34159531 34069436 33849398 33169358 32509323
32149312 31859320
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN