SPC MD 1220

MD 1220 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL

Mesoscale Discussion 1220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of south-central KY into Middle TN and
northern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 091555Z - 091800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/locally damaging gusts and small hail are
possible this morning and afternoon as storms develop generally
eastward the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection is occurring along an effective
surface cold front from south-central KY into western/Middle TN.
Additional storms are noted along a northward-advancing quasi-warm
front feature across northern AL as well. Between these two
features, filtered heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the
upper 70 to low 80s amid upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints. This is
fostering gradual destabilization heading into midday. Increasing
cumulus is noted beneath breaks in higher level clouds, and
additional convection and gradual intensification of ongoing storms
is expected over the next couple of hours. While instability will
remain modest, sufficient lapse rates and vertical shear on the
southern periphery of stronger mid/upper westerly flow aloft should
support some storm organization. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will
be possible with this activity. Additionally, cool temperatures
aloft (around -11 C) were noted on the 12z BNA RAOB. These cool
temperatures aloft could aid in small hail production with any
stronger/longer lived thunderstorm cores. Trends will be monitored
for possible watch issuance over the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36588749 36898680 37248547 37198503 36828479 36198483
            35498526 35028562 34818601 34738677 34788751 35048818
            35288854 35548865 35978862 36168837 36588749 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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