SPC MD 1221

MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FL AND SOUTHEAST GA

Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of north FL and southeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091720Z - 091915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts may occur this afternoon with
thunderstorm activity developing east/northeast across the region.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms across southern GA has
occasionally shown near-severe level velocity signatures on radar of
the past 30 minutes, and a gust to 55 mph was noted in Lowndes
County GA. This activity is occurring within a moderately unstable
but weakly sheared environment. Given weak shear, thunderstorms will
likely remain somewhat disorganized. However, steep low-level lapse
rates and PW values near 2 inches may support water-loaded
downdrafts and sporadic strong downburst winds as convection
develops east/northeast through the afternoon. Overall severe
potential is expected to remain limited and a watch is not
anticipated at this time.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31158401 31818316 32358170 32318115 31958085 31598093
            31098125 30578174 30288310 30378349 30748407 31158401 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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