SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this evening across parts of the central Appalachians, and in parts of the southern High Plains. A marginal severe threat will be possible over much of the Southeast, and from central into southeast Texas. ...Central Appalachians... The latest water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Great Lakes with southwest flow over much of the eastern U.S. A pronounced vorticity max is located over western Pennsylvania. Large-scale ascent associated with this feature is providing support for scattered thunderstorm development. The latest RAP has an axis of instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) analyzed from eastern West Virginia into far southern New York. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP at College Station has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with some directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This will continue to support a severe threat for a couple more hours this evening. ...Southern High Plains... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the southern and central Rockies into much of the Great Plains. At the surface, a moist axis is analyzed from west Texas into northeast New Mexico, along which the RAP has moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the western edge of the stronger instability in east-central New Mexico. Short-term model solutions move this convection southeastward into west Texas, where additional storms are already ongoing. These two areas of convection are expected to consolidate later this evening, and move southeastward into the western Texas Hill Country. Moderate deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates over parts of western and central Texas will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with cells that become intense. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible. ...Central and Southeast Texas... West-northwesterly mid-level flow is located from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a very moist airmass is located over much of the region. The strongest instability is located over parts of southeast Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, the Houston WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 k shear around 50 knots, suggesting that supercells will be possible. In spite of this, convective coverage is expected to remain rather isolated due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop and persist near the instability maximum this evening could have a potential for severe gusts and hail. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is currently located from the lower Ohio Valley southward into the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a moist airmass is present over much of the Southeast. The RAP suggests that MLCAPE ranges from around 1000 J/kg over parts of central Georgia and central Alabama to about 3000 J/kg in southwest Louisiana. Although deep-layer shear is relatively weak across the region this evening, the instability could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail with the stronger cells for another hour or so. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2025