SPC MD 1240

MD 1240 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS


Mesoscale Discussion 1240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern New Mexico into western
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 101733Z - 101900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of large to very large hail and severe
winds this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has begun across the Davis
Mountains in Texas and Sacramento Mountains in New Mexico.
Temperatures in these regions have warmed into the low to mid 80s,
with MLCIN remaining but eroding through time. 

Deep layer shear 35-40 kts amid 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep
lapse rates will support potential for large to very large hail and
severe winds. Initial storm mode will likely be supercellular before
a more mixed mode of multi-cell clusters. As this shift occurs, the
severe wind risk will increase. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
needed to cover these risks.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30390437 31720551 32670568 33200559 33410509 33250408
            32550244 31310166 30720167 30000227 29870342 29820386
            29960401 30390437 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

StormPrep