SPC Jun 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms associated with isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts are expected this evening across parts of the Rio Grande
Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible in parts of the
southern Plains, central Gulf Coast states, and northwestern U.S.

...Rio Grande Valley/Southern Plains...
A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over New
Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present over much of
the southern Plains. The RAP suggests that moderate instability is
confined to the Texas Coastal Plain and lower Rio Grande Valley,
where surface dewpoints generally range from the upper 60s to mid
70s F. A severe convective cluster is located near the northwestern
edge of moderate instability in the vicinity of Del Rio. This area
of convection will continue to move southeastward across southwest
Texas this evening. The WSR-88D VWP at Del Rio has 0-6 km shear near
25 knots. In addition, the RAP suggests that 700-500 mb lapse rates
are between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This environment should be sufficient
for an isolated severe threat. Organized line segments could be
capable of isolated large hail and wind damage. The severe threat in
the Rio Grande Valley may persist into the mid to late evening.

Further to the east into parts of the southern Plains, convection
associated with warm advection may develop later this evening into
the tonight. This convection could pose a threat for hail and
marginally severe wind gusts.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a
moist airmass is located from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward
to the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this airmass, the RAP has an axis
of moderate to strong instability analyzed from south-central
Mississippi into central Alabama and central Georgia. Surface
dewpoints near this axis are mostly in the lower 70s F. Although
deep-layer shear is relatively weak along and near this instability
axis, low-level lapse rates are steep. This could contribute to a
marginal wind-damage threat early this evening.

...Northwestern States...
A mid-level shortwave trough will approach the northern California
coast this evening. Ahead of the trough, a somewhat moist airmass is
present from northern California into southeastern Oregon, where
scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon. Within this
airmass, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range.
Deep-layer shear appears to be relatively weak, with 0-6 km shear
estimated to be between 20 and 30 knots. In spite of this, low to
mid-level lapse rates are very steep. This could support a marginal
wind-damage or hail threat for a couple more hours.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2025

StormPrep