Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected Thursday across parts of the central to northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A deeper upstream shortwave trough will begin to influence the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift north-northeastward across eastern portions of the southern Plains. At the surface, a lee cyclone may gradually deepen during the day across the central High Plains, while a weak frontal wave is forecast to develop and move eastward from southern SD into southwest MN. ...Eastern SD/southern MN into northeast NE/northern IA... Elevated convection and possibly a MCV/remnant MCS may move across parts of the Dakotas into MN during the morning. In the wake of the morning convection, an outflow-influenced surface front is forecast to move northward across northern NE/IA into parts of eastern SD and southern MN. While deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, a localized zone of conditional supercell potential could eventually evolve near and just north of the front, where increasing low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy and surface winds will be favorably backed. If any supercells can develop within this regime, then hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado would all be possible. With the primary shortwave trough generally forecast to dampen with time and be displaced somewhat north of the more favorable environment, coverage of diurnal supercell development (if any) is uncertain. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence in this scenario increases. Otherwise, storm coverage may generally increase north of the front from late afternoon into the evening within a low-level warm-advection regime, with some clustering possible as convection spreads across southern MN Thursday night. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... High-based convection is expected to develop Thursday afternoon across parts of northeast CO/eastern WY. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and sufficient buoyancy could support localized hail and strong to severe gusts with initial development. With time, an outflow-driven cluster could spread into the NE Panhandle, with potentially a somewhat greater concentration of strong/severe gusts. ...Southern/central/east TX into the ArkLaMiss region... Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of central/east TX. Rich low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow could support at least an isolated threat for a tornado, locally damaging gusts, and perhaps some hail with the morning convection. Storm evolution during the day is uncertain, but in general, an arc of convection may spread northeastward toward the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss vicinities during the afternoon, in conjunction with the primary mid/upper-level low or any MCVs that develop. Locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could accompany the storms within this regime. Some redevelopment is also possible along the trailing outflow during the afternoon and evening into south-central TX, with a threat of localized hail and wind-damage. ...Western/central PA into the northern Mid Atlantic... Moderate destabilization is expected Thursday afternoon from parts of western/central PA into the northern Mid Atlantic, along and south of a cold front. This region will be on the southern periphery of stronger west-northwesterly flow aloft, and with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. However, with large-scale ascent generally displaced well to the north and very weak convergence expected along the front, potential for sustained deep convection currently appears limited. Severe probabilities may be needed if a stronger signal for robust development emerges with time. ..Dean.. 06/11/2025
At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Monticello, moving north…
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK…
No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 12 16:56:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 12 16:56:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK…
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