MD 1249 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025
Areas affected...Southeast VA into Northeast NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111615Z - 111815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may produce
gusty winds and small hail through the afternoon. The severe risk is
expected to remain low, and a watch is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
developed early this afternoon as strong heating of a very moist
airmass has resulted in weak to moderate destabilization across the
region. Modest mid/upper west/southwesterly flow resides over the
region as an upper trough lifts northeast across the Eastern
Seaboard today. This is supporting effective shear magnitudes around
20-25 kt, allowing for transient organized cells. Weak midlevel
lapse rates and modest shear will likely limit longevity of any
stronger/better organized cells. Nevertheless, cool temperatures
aloft (around -10 C at 500 mb) and steepened low-level lapse rates
could allow for gusty winds and small hail with the more intense
cells. The severe risk is expected to remain low overall, and a
watch is not expected.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 37067726 37007608 36447561 35367565 34887648 34877679
35217742 36437801 36817789 36927776 37067726
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN