SPC Jun 12, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible
today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and
wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas
coastal plains into lower Mississippi Valley and a small portion of
the northern Mid Atlantic.

...NE/SD...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over eastern
MT, with a mid-level speed max tracking across WY.  Large-scale lift
associated with the jet max will overspread parts of NE/SD by late
afternoon along a stalled surface boundary.  At least widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for a few hours (mainly
21-03z), with forecast soundings suggesting sufficient deep-layer
shear for a few organized/rotating cells.  Locally damaging winds
and hail are possible.  Overnight CAM guidance has shown consistency
on the corridor most likely to see storms, so have added a narrow
SLGT to cover this threat.

...East TX/LA/AR...
An upper trough is located over central TX, where widespread
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning.  A few of these storms have
shown supercell tendencies overnight.  Model guidance and local VAD
data suggest a region of enhanced low/mid level flow to the east of
the upper trough, extending from central into northeast TX.  As the
trough moves northeastward today, the combination of a very moist
and modestly unstable air mass, sufficient low/deep layer shear, and
considerable coverage of thunderstorms, will contribute to a risk of
a few locally damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes.  Will maintain
MRGL risk for today due to widespread clouds and limited opportunity
for heating.

...GA/SC/NC...
Strong heating is expected today across parts of GA/SC/NC, where
temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. 
This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the
development scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Vertical shear is
weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach
severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2025

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