Official

SPC Jun 13, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High
Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional severe storms will
also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough in the eastern U.S. will weaken during the
day on Saturday. Ridging will become more prevalent within the
Plains and Southwest. Within the Northwest and northern Rockies,
troughing will remain in place. A moist airmass will be in place
underneath the upper ridge and will continue to move north and
westward given the presence of lee troughing.

...Montana into central High Plains...
With the upper-level trough remaining situated within the
Northwest/eastern Pacific, moderate mid-level winds and surface
troughing will remain in these regions. Moisture should continue to
advect into the High Plains/central Montana. Effective shear of
40-55 kts will again support supercell development/maintenance at
least early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail and
severe winds will be possible. One or more clusters may also evolve
through the afternoon and into the evening. With the low-level jet
focusing into Nebraska/South Dakota, clusters could persist a bit
farther east in these locations. Severe gusts would be the primary
threat with that activity.

...Central/southern Plains...
The overall evolution of convection is less certain in these areas.
Some guidance continues to show some potential for activity from
overnight Friday to continue into Saturday. Whether this activity
could reinvigorate as the very moist airmass destabilizes during the
day is not clear. With shear decreasing with eastward extent, such a
scenario would largely be dependent on mesoscale cold pool dynamics.
For now, marginal severe wind probabilities will be maintained over
much of Kansas/Oklahoma in order to account for this conditional
outcome.

Storms are more likely to initiate within the higher terrain or
surface lee trough during the afternoon. However, weaker mid-level
ascent with southern extent suggests storm coverage will be more
isolated in the southern High Plains/Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. Isolated
severe gusts and large hail are possible with these cells/clusters.

...Eastern South Dakota/far western Minnesota...
A modest increase in the low-level jet during the evening/overnight
may promote widely scattered to scattered storms along a boundary.
Marginal deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would
support some risk for marginally severe hail.

...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic...
A nebulous upper-level trough will continue to slowly progress east.
This feature will likely weaken with time. The moist airmass across
these areas may support pockets of larger MLCAPE (from around 1500
J/kg farther east, increasing to near 3000 farther west). With poor
lapse rates, ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and weak mid-level
winds, organized severe storms do not appear likely. Isolated wind
damage may occur where locally greater surface heating occurs.

..Wendt.. 06/13/2025

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