SPC MD 1270

MD 1270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY…NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI…AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Central Tennessee and Kentucky...northeastern
Mississippi...and northwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131738Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase across the
TN Valley through this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...A few clusters of thunderstorms, and new rapid
development via visible satellite imagery, are being observed from
far northeastern MS into middle TN and central KY. This convection
is blooming in a low to moderately unstable air mass, with surface
dewpoints/temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s under a relatively
cooler pocket of air aloft, east of a mid-level cyclone centered
near the MO/AR border. Based on the latest VAD profiles around the
region, mid-level southwesterly flow continues to slowly increase.
Some organization into line segments will be possible through this
afternoon given ~35 kt of effective deep layer shear, with
precipitation loading aiding in a threat of locally damaging wind
gusts. However, a lack of persistent, stronger mid-level flow later
today should limit the overall severe weather threat and a weather
watch is not anticipated at this time.

..Barnes/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34908861 35578828 36098735 38558529 38208444 36598512
            35598591 34618668 33858747 33598794 33438871 33378933
            33498963 33798974 34218958 34908861 

Read more