SPC MD 1281

MD 1281 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413… FOR SOUTHWEST NE INTO WESTERN KS AND PARTS OF EASTERN CO

Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...Southwest NE into western KS and parts of eastern
CO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

Valid 140432Z - 140600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat could persist into the early overnight.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster recently produced a
57 kt gust in Ogalalla, NE. Moderate downstream buoyancy and
modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support some
severe-wind threat in the short term as this system moves across
southwest NE and extreme northwest KS. The longevity of the severe
threat is uncertain due to increasing MLCINH with time. Some
backbuilding along the trailing outflow also remains possible into
far northeast CO. 

Farther south, a storm cluster has shown some signs of
intensification across southeast CO. With strong downstream buoyancy
(MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg) and the nocturnal low-level jet
forecast to become focused into southwest KS overnight, there is
some potential for this cluster to intensify with time, and
potentially pose some threat for severe wind and hail. However, this
potential remains uncertain due to the competing influences of
increasing CINH and generally modest deep-layer flow/shear. Trends
will be monitored for an uptick in severe potential and the need for
watch issuance downstream of this cluster.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37570334 38230363 38520337 38820257 39360242 40020242
            42060181 42010047 40739975 39789970 39119980 38309994
            37680021 37310061 37090192 37570334 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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