SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025