SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306. ...Southern High Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025
