SPC Jun 16, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will
spread eastward from central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming
and the western Dakotas through tonight. Additional severe
thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe
gusts across the central and southern Plains into tonight.

...MT to SD/NE through tonight...
A mix of organized clusters and supercells continue tracking
eastward across central/eastern MT this evening -- focused ahead of
a low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into the area. These storms
will continue to pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though
eventual upscale growth should support an increasing risk for a
swath of severe winds with eastward extent. For details, reference
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418. 

Father south, several other organized storm clusters are evolving
eastward out of eastern WY and western NE, which will both pose a
risk of severe wind gusts. The Enhanced Risk was expanded southward
across western SD (driven by 30-percent wind probabilities), where
the northern upscale-growing cluster is moving into an environment
characterized by steep deep-layer lapse rates, rich boundary-layer
moisture, and 35 kt of effective shear (per UNR 00Z sounding). This
will favor a swath of severe winds (some 75+ mph) into tonight. For
details, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 420 and 421 and MCD 1306.

...Southern High Plains...
A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues tracking eastward across
east-central NM, posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.
See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 and MCD 1307 for details.

..Weinman.. 06/16/2025

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