SPC Jun 16, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are forecast
today across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

...MN/IA...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
eastern Dakotas.  As this trough moves eastward this afternoon, a
surface low will deepen over central MN with a trailing cold front
sweeping across the state.  Morning convection is getting out of the
way, which should allow several hours of strong
heating/destabilization.  Afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg are
expected, with little inhibition.  This should lead to rapid
thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon near the surface low, with
at least widely scattered development southward along the cold front
into northern IA.  Low-level winds are somewhat veered but strong. 
This coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft should promote a few
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds.  A tornado or
two is also possible.

...NE/KS...
The aforementioned cold front will sag southward into northern NE by
early evening.  A strong southerly low-level jet south of the front,
along with steep mid-level lapse rates and large CAPE, will promote
the development of scattered intense storms along the front. 
Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds are
expected, along with perhaps a tornado.  Congealing outflows from
high-based convection are expected to move into the region during
the mid-evening from the west, resulting in upscale convective
growth and an increasing risk of damaging winds.

...MS/AL...
Strong heating is occurring today across much of MS and western AL,
where dewpoints are in the mid 70s.  Clusters of thunderstorms are
forming over LA, which are expected to propagate northeastward
across the region through the day.  Steep low-level lapse rates,
large CAPE, and relatively strong ambient low-level wind fields will
pose some of risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest
cells today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/16/2025

StormPrep