SPC Jun 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, hail, and possibly a
few tornadoes are expected Tuesday across parts of the central
Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area,
marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the
central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in
parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, a low amplitude upper trough will move from the Rockies
into the Plains, providing cooling aloft. To the north, an upper
wave will lift out of the Great Lakes, while modest southwest flow
aloft develops over the Appalachians north of an upper high.

At the surface, a low will develop over the TX Panhandle, and a
front associated with the northern wave will stall from Lake MI into
the central Plains. South of this boundary, a very moist air mass
with 70s F dewpoints will exist over a large area. As the upper
trough moves into the Plains, a low-level jet will increase during
the evening with over 50 kt into KS.

...Central Plains...
Areas of morning thunderstorms are expected from parts of southern
NE into eastern KS, though the exact location is uncertain.
Nonetheless, any early activity should generally dissipate during
the day, with very strong instability developing along and south of
I-70 in KS/MO. Southwest winds across the southern High Plains will
extend a low-level lapse rate plume into southwest/central KS, while
mid 70s F dewpoints develop over eastern OK and KS. Meanwhile, the
air mass over NE/CO/WY will likely destabilize/recover during the
afternoon with pockets of strong instability.

Storm evolution is a bit complex for Tuesday and for some areas will
depend on early day storms and outflows. But in general, robust
storms will develop late in the afternoon over much of central into
eastern KS, near the instability axis and downstream of the
low-level lapse rate plume, and, over much of eastern WY/CO and into
western NE where hail and damaging gusts will be possible.

Of particular concern are potential supercells and eventual damaging
MCS development over the Enhanced Risk area late in the day and into
the evening. A conditional risk for tornadoes will exist with
initial activity, should sufficient SRH remain along any residual
outflows from early day storms. Isolated very large hail will also
be probable with slow-moving, large cells. With time,
clustering/aggregating outflows should yield a severe MCS, which may
occur in earnest as activity from the High Plains pushes east late.

...WV into VA and western MD...
Strong heating will occur over much of the southeastern states
beneath the upper ridge, with southwest winds aiding theta-e
advection northward into WV/VA/MD. Midlevel moisture will also exist
across the region, with scattered storms developing during the
afternoon over the higher terrain. Some clustering may occur, with a
small area of locally damaging wind potential late in the day as
storms continue east toward northern VA and western MD.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2025

StormPrep