SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a couple tornadoes are forecast through tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...NE/KS vicinity... The Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been expanded southward into northwest KS with the 01z update, and the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded southward toward the KS/OK border. This is based on: 1. Current location of the surface boundary draped across NE. 2. A very favorable thermodynamic environment downstream into northwest KS (very steep lapse rates and strong instability on 00z DDC RAOB). 3. A forecast 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet across western KS this evening/tonight. This should support organization of convection into a bow or forward-propagating cluster across southwest/south-central NE into northwest/north-central KS this evening/tonight. Scattered severe gusts with isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. this activity should gradually weaken as it approached south-central KS/northwest OK late tonight. See MCD 1320 for more information regarding short term severe potential will ongoing convection across NE. ...MN/WI... The Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been removed as convection is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple of hours with eastward extent. Isolated strong gusts/hail and perhaps a tornado or two may persist with the strongest storms the next few hours before this weakening occurs. See MCD 1321 for more short term information. ...IA... A small MCS across western IA will continue to shift southeast the next few hours. Isolated severe gusts will be possible with this activity and the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded into central IA. Gradual weakening should occur into eastern IA where instability wanes and overall thermodynamic environment becomes less favorable per the 00z DVN RAOB. ...MT/WY... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of southeast MT behind ongoing convection. Isolated severe storms are expected to continue across far southeast MT into northeast WY the remainder of the evening. ...MS... The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed MS and vicinity as convection has largely dissipated and/or weakened. ..Leitman.. 06/17/2025