SPC Jun 17, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
gusts, large to very large hail, and a couple tornadoes are forecast
through tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains into the
Upper Mississippi Valley.

...NE/KS vicinity...

The Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been expanded southward into
northwest KS with the 01z update, and the Slight risk (level 2 of 5)
has been expanded southward toward the KS/OK border. This is based
on:

1. Current location of the surface boundary draped across NE.
2. A very favorable thermodynamic environment downstream into
northwest KS (very steep lapse rates and strong instability on 00z
DDC RAOB).
3. A forecast 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet across western KS
this evening/tonight.

This should support organization of convection into a bow or
forward-propagating cluster across southwest/south-central NE into
northwest/north-central KS this evening/tonight. Scattered severe
gusts with isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. this activity
should gradually weaken as it approached south-central KS/northwest
OK late tonight.

See MCD 1320 for more information regarding short term severe
potential will ongoing convection across NE.

...MN/WI...

The Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been removed as convection is
expected to gradually weaken over the next couple of hours with
eastward extent. Isolated strong gusts/hail and perhaps a tornado or
two may persist with the strongest storms the next few hours before
this weakening occurs. See MCD 1321 for more short term information.

...IA...

A small MCS across western IA will continue to shift southeast the
next few hours. Isolated severe gusts will be possible with this
activity and the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded into
central IA. Gradual weakening should occur into eastern IA where
instability wanes and overall thermodynamic environment becomes less
favorable per the 00z DVN RAOB.

...MT/WY...

Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of southeast MT
behind ongoing convection. Isolated severe storms are expected to
continue across far southeast MT into northeast WY the remainder of
the evening.

...MS...

The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed MS and vicinity as
convection has largely dissipated and/or weakened.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2025

StormPrep