SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025