SPC Jun 18, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some
greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple
tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

...KS/OK/MO vicinity...

One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to
develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a
surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast.
Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of
central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet
noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating
has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F,
intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts
remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk
(level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and
confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the
surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability
gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for
significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours.

...WY/CO into NE...

Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with
some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE.
Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through
the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where
boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has
weakened.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour
or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward
propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally
stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening
trend.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2025

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