Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued June 18 at 9:38PM CDT until June 18 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS Norman OK

MD 1363 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST Mesoscale Discussion 1363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191644Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening towering cumulus across central and eastern New York amid moderate instability in an uncapped environment. As storms deepen, some organization/updraft rotation is expected given moderate shear (50 knots at 3km per ENX VWP). Damaging

MD 1364 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION Mesoscale Discussion 1364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191722Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Convection will gradually intensify as they move off the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, though isolated large hail and a brief tornado or two are also possible. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows convection gradually deepening along the Blue Ridge in advance of an upper-level trough. Given the upper 60s to low 70s F

MD 1365 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA Mesoscale Discussion 1365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina and western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191732Z - 191900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low 70s dewpoints and mid 80s temperatures have yielded 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from northeast Georgia to western North Carolina. This moderate shear and convergence within a lee trough and uncapped environment should result in scattered thunderstorm activity