SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds, will spread across portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region this evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms will also continue across portions of the Red River region of southern Oklahoma and North Texas. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level height falls will spread across the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight in response to a short-wave trough that will advance into MI-IL by the end of the period. Synoptically, LLJ is strengthening across the OH Valley ahead of the main surface front that extends from Lake MI-central IL-central MO. While the primary squall line has surged well ahead of the front into central OH/KY, scattered convection is gradually increasing along the front across MO/western IL. This activity may continue to increase as the boundary surges southeast later tonight. Otherwise, the lead squall line is expected to propagate into the upper Ohio Valley with an attendant threat of damaging winds. Farther southwest into the southern Plains, 00z soundings from both OUN and FWD exhibit minimal CINH with seasonally high PW values and strong MLCAPE (>3000 J/kg). Both soundings have adequate deep-layer shear for organized updrafts, but the Red River corridor should only experience weak low-level warm advection through the overnight period. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be the most likely scenario given the weak forcing along this portion of the boundary. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2025