MD 1360 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Areas affected...portions of central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190408Z - 190545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail may occur
over the next couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...An embedded 500 mb impulse is overspreading MO,
contributing to locally higher deep-layer shear (e.g. 40+ kts of
effective bulk shear per 03Z mesoanalysis), as well as deep-layer
ascent. As such, a few transient supercells have developed, with
MRMS mosaic radar data suggesting that some of these storms are
producing hail that is approaching severe limits. Mid-level lapse
rates are not particularly steep, as shown by the 00Z SGF observed
soundings, which depicts near 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a
stabilizing boundary layer. While an instance or two of 1+ inch
diameter hail may be observed, the aforementioned tall/thin CAPE
(with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) and modest deep-layer shear suggest
that severe hail should be overall isolated. As such, a WW issuance
is not expected.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37959434 38589392 38979245 38769109 38219066 37589103
37339210 37379301 37569393 37959434
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN