Short-Term Energy Outlook

(Tue, 10 Jun 2025) Trade policy assumptions. The U.S. macroeconomic outlook we use in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is based on S&P Global’s macroeconomic model. S&P Global’s most recent model reflects the tariffs announced in April and includes the 90-day temporary suspension of tariffs granted to certain countries. S&P Global finalized its most recent model before the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled on May 28 to temporarily halt the implementation of all reciprocal tariffs. As a result, our macroeconomic forecast assumes lower tariffs on China’s products compared with last month’s STEO and 10% tariffs on countries subject to the 90-day temporary suspension. These differences in tariff rates likely have offsetting effects on the macroeconomic forecast.