MD 1379 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445…446… FOR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...446... Valid 200353Z - 200600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445, 446 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will focus across portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. DISCUSSION...LLJ is increasing across eastern NE into eastern SD where 1km VAD winds are now on the order of 45-55kt. Scattered severe thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern Dakotas and low-level warm advection should encourage this activity to spread into western MN, along/north of the surface boundary draped across this region. Hail is likely occurring with the most robust updrafts, and latest MRMS data suggests hail in excess of 1 inch is probable at times. Over the next several hours, LLJ will gradually strengthen and shift into southern MN, and should encourage continued southeast propagation into the upper MS Valley region. ..Darrow.. 06/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47469773 45089482 44279607 44729809 46679971 47469773 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
