SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025