SPC Jun 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and
northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this
afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the
Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and
southern Virginia.

...High Plains...
Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across
the High Plains of WY/CO.  Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s,
coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield
a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and
northeast/east-central CO.  Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward
with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours.  

...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH...
A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today,
with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. 
This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable,
leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Hot surface
temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

...TN/NC/VA Mountains...
A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the
mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA.  This should lead
to widely scattered thunderstorm development.  Winds aloft are weak,
but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and
considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in
the strongest cells.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025

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