SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The CONUS pattern will feature a trough across the western CONUS and a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS Wednesday morning. This pattern will deamplify during the period. A strong mid-level jet streak will extend from northern Ontario to the Northeast with a weak upper-low over Florida. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon/evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... A weak lee trough will extend from southeast Montana to northeast Colorado. Weak to moderate instability will develop along this zone during the afternoon and evening. Shear will be modest (25-30 knots) with a few multicell clusters possible. Isolated large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Midwest into the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop south of a warm front across the Midwest. A belt of 50+ knot mid-level flow is forecast to overspread the warm sector and provide sufficient shear for storm organization. In addition, some stronger low-level shear will develop as a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon/evening. The stronger/more organized storms in the area could have some tornado threat, particularly if any backed flow can develop. At this time, the threat is expected too low for higher severe weather probabilities. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Additional storms are likely to develop within a moderate to strongly unstable environment along a frontal zone from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Shear will be mostly weak which should limit the overall threat. However, strong instability and a very moist environment may support some threat for wet microbursts. ...Carolinas into the Southeast... Extreme instability is expected to develop from the Carolinas into the Southeast amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s. This extreme instability and scattered to widespread storm development should be sufficient for a damaging wind threat. In addition, stronger mid-level northeasterly flow is expected across the eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. This may result in even greater storm organization and clustering where the stronger shear is present. Some large hail is possible with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft and moderate to potentially strong instability is expected to develop across the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. Shear is forecast around 20 to 25 knots which may result in a few multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. The greater threat should be mostly focused on the west coast where the sea-breeze convergence is stronger and shear is slightly greater amid westerly low-level flow. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025