MD 1426 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA…SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN…AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Areas affected...portions of far northeast Illinois into northern
Indiana...southern Lower Michigan...and extreme northwest Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241736Z - 241930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for isolated damaging gusts will increase through
the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently
expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along the periphery of an
upper ridge, where moderate buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
has materialized given robust boundary layer heating. Along the
periphery of this ridge is modestly strong westerly flow aloft,
contributing to 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, storms
that continue to intensify through the afternoon will likely become
multicells or transient supercells with an isolated damaging gust
threat. Since the overall severe threat should remain sparse and
localized, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently
anticipated.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
LAT...LON 42138886 42738608 42858381 42838263 42758254 42618256
42338291 42168305 41938309 41758305 41648326 41478399
41218498 41138606 41058703 41118783 41248838 41398881
42138886
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH