Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EASTERN GEORGIA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA.... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID ERROR IN SC ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic. ...Southeast US... An unusually favorable thermodynamic pattern has evolved across the southeast US today, with very steep mid-level lapse rates, cool temperatures aloft, and strong daytime heating. Surface dewpoints in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg. Large scale forcing is weak, suggesting convective initiation will be poorly focused. However, most 12z CAM solutions show several clusters of storms through the afternoon spreading southward from NC into SC and eastern GA. Vertical shear is rather weak, suggesting storms will be rather disorganized. However, there is a conditional risk for an active day across the ENH risk, with considerable coverage of damaging wind reports possible. As storms spread southwestward this evening across GA, the risk of locally damaging wind gusts will continue. ...NE/IA/MN... Visible satellite imagery shows a developing differential heating zone extending from south-central NE into central IA. Full sun to the south of this zone will lead to strong instability and scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. A band of 30-40 knot southwesterly flow aloft atop this zone, coupled with strengthening southerly low-level winds, will encourage organized/bowing clusters of storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...CO/KS... Thunderstorms will once again develop off the higher terrain of CO/WY this afternoon and spread into the Plains. Model guidance suggests steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for severe wind potential as these storms track toward northwest KS/southwest NE by early evening. ...OH/WV... Hot and humid conditions are present today across much of southern OH into northern WV. Visible satellite imagery shows a developing CU field, which may result in scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms. Winds aloft are rather weak, but the strongest cells in this corridor may be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart.. 06/25/2025
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK…
MD 1432 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC INTO FAR NORTHEAST…
No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 25 17:30:02 UTC 2025.
MD 1433 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHEAST GA AND…
MD 1434 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN WV INTO PARTS OF MD...VA...DC...AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL…
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK…
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