MD 1432 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC INTO FAR NORTHEAST GA AND EXTREME EASTERN TN
Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Areas affected...Parts of western NC/upstate SC into far northwest
GA and extreme eastern TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251543Z - 251745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging downburst/outflow winds and isolated hail are
possible into this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Morning soundings depict a rather volatile
thermodynamic environment across parts of the Southeast this
morning. A remnant EML and seasonably cold midlevel temperatures
atop 70s F dewpoints are already supporting MLCAPE of 3000-4000
J/kg. Temperatures will warm through the 90s F this afternoon,
resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates.
Low-level flow will generally remain weak, but modest northeasterly
midlevel flow between a weakening upper ridge and an upper low near
south FL could support weakly organized storms. However, even
relatively disorganized storms in this regime will be capable of
producing damaging/potentially severe downbursts and isolated hail,
given the very favorable thermodynamic environment.
Storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain into mid afternoon. The
highest confidence is short-term development is across the higher
terrain over western NC and vicinity, where isolated initiation is
underway. The need for short-term watch issuance is uncertain, but
will become increasingly possible with time, especially across
south/east portions of the MCD area.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 35248440 36028330 36518194 36358126 36008117 35668122
35278163 35098201 34718260 34498321 34568355 34658408
35248440
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN