SPC MD 1433

MD 1433 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHEAST GA AND FAR SOUTHERN VA


Mesoscale Discussion 1433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Much of the Carolinas into northeast GA and far
southern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 251617Z - 251815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...While timing is uncertain, potential for damaging
downburst/outflow winds and isolated hail will increase through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A volatile thermodynamic environment is in place across
the Carolinas early this afternoon. Morning soundings across the
region depict very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a richly moist
boundary layer, and strong to extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE of
3000-4500 J/kg) is already in place across the region. 

With rather nebulous large-scale ascent, storm coverage is somewhat
uncertain in the short-term, though should generally increase
through the afternoon. Some initiation is underway near a weak
surface confluence zone across northeast NC. While deep-layer shear
is rather weak, the very favorable thermodynamic environment will
support damaging/potentially severe downbursts. Relatively cool
temperatures aloft could also support at least a brief hail threat
with the strongest updrafts. With time, some outflow consolidation
could occur, resulting in potential for more concentrated swaths of
wind damage. 

One or more watches will likely be issued across the region this
afternoon, though timing is uncertain and related to trends
regarding storm development and coverage.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
FFC...

LAT...LON   36807839 36197755 35387689 34547717 33807864 33468021
            33068245 33628292 34358324 35018188 35358144 35778090
            36118042 36477935 36807839 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

StormPrep