SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR A SMALL AREA AROUND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging outflow gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible for the next several hours from South Carolina to southern Alabama. A couple of tornadoes will be possible in the short term in the vicinity of southwest Wisconsin. ...Southeast tonight... Clusters of storms are ongoing across SC, where outflow mergers have led to consolidation of a cold pool. The storms will likely persist for several more hours while spreading southwestward over the coastal plains of SC/GA, sustained by steeper-than-usual midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy. Isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will remain a possibility with the stronger embedded storms (especially with mergers), but damaging outflow gusts will be the main threat with collapsing cores in the steep lapse rate environment with strong downdraft potential (as suggested by DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). Farther southwest, a few strong-severe storms will be possible through about 02-03z along the conglomerate outflow from southwest GA into southern AL. ...Southwest WI/southeast MN/northeast IA this evening... Several tornadoes have been reported with supercells in a broken band from northeast IA across far southeast MN into southwest WI. These storms have trended toward a more linear mode over time and the tornado threat appears to have already peaked. Prior to the storms weakening early tonight, the potential for a couple of tornadoes will persist for another 1-2 hours with the stronger embedded supercells interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature/shear are maximized. ...Eastern NE/western IA this evening... Convection has been largely undercut by convective outflow from eastern NE into western IA. Moderate buoyancy remains immediately to the south of the aggregate outflow/effective frontal boundary, and profiles will remain sufficiently moist to maintain elevated convection into the overnight hours. However, the potential for severe storms appears to be diminishing with time, with only isolated strong outflow gusts and/or marginally severe hail expected beyond 01z. ...Northern High Plains through early tonight... Widely scattered storms, some with supercell structure, will be possible through about 03z. Thereafter, convection is expected to weaken consistently with diurnal stabilization. In the interim, isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible. ..Thompson.. 06/26/2025