Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025
No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 26 17:39:01 UTC 2025.
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