SPC MD 1452

MD 1452 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN IA…SOUTHEAST MN…SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WI

Mesoscale Discussion 1452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern IA...southeast
MN...southern/central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 261629Z - 261830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat of a few tornadoes and
isolated to scattered damaging winds may develop this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An MCV is moving out of the Missouri Valley toward
southern MN, immediately in advance of a larger-scale
mid/upper-level trough moving across the northern Plains. A warm
front is draped from northern IA into southern WI. This front will
move northward into this afternoon, as a surface wave moves along
the front near the MN/IA border. Rich low-level moisture is in place
near and south of the warm front. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but
diurnal heating of the very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE
increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range along and south of the
front. 

Visible satellite indicates some clearing north of the warm front
from northeast IA into far southeast MN and southwest WI. This will
allow moderate buoyancy to develop within a region where surface
winds are backed and effective SRH is locally enhanced. As the MCV
and surface wave move across the region, supercell development will
be possible near/north of the warm front and near the surface low,
with relatively enlarged low-level hodographs supporting a tornado
threat. Eventually, a broken line of storms may eventually develop
along a trailing cold front, which could also pose a threat of
locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. 

Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon in order to address
these threats.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42729316 42529386 42279476 43019445 43859394 44319263
            44539145 44549027 44208887 43588845 43078852 42918895
            42929015 42899223 42729316 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

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