SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday Night. ...Synopsis... A broad trough and stronger mid-level flow will overspread the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday. Weak ridging is expected across the Great Lakes with a weak shortwave trough traversing the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak surface low will be present across the northern Plains with an additional surface low across southern Quebec. A front will connect these 2 low-pressure centers through the southern Great Lakes region. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across northern Minnesota at the nose of a low-level jet. In the wake of and southwest of this convection, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop amid temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the 70s. Weak height falls are forecast across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon/evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely, potentially focused on outflow from morning convection. Shear should be sufficient for supercells with any storms across North Dakota and northern Minnesota with weaker shear and perhaps more multicell storm mode across the eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota vicinity. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threat. The greatest large hail threat will be from northeast South Dakota to central Minnesota where the strongest overlap of shear and instability may result in a favorable zone for supercells. ...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast on Friday. Strong heating should result in moderate to potentially strong instability east of the Appalachians. Shear will be relatively weak across the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday with only weakly organized storm expected. Strong instability and scattered storm coverage will result in a threat for damaging wind gusts. Farther north, from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into eastern New York, strong shear is forecast, but instability will not be as great. Therefore, a few more organized storms are possible, but weaker heating/low-level lapse rates will likely be a limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 06/27/2025
