SPC Jun 27, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe
wind gusts and isolated large hail across parts of the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday
Night.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough and stronger mid-level flow will overspread the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday. Weak ridging is
expected across the Great Lakes with a weak shortwave trough
traversing the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a very
moist airmass will be in place across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. A weak surface low will be present across the
northern Plains with an additional surface low across southern
Quebec. A front will connect these 2 low-pressure centers through
the southern Great Lakes region. 

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period across northern Minnesota at the nose of a low-level jet.
In the wake of and southwest of this convection, moderate to strong
instability is forecast to develop amid temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s and dewpoints in the 70s. Weak height falls are forecast
across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon/evening. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are likely, potentially focused on
outflow from morning convection. Shear should be sufficient for
supercells with any storms across North Dakota and northern
Minnesota with weaker shear and perhaps more multicell storm mode
across the eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota vicinity.
Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary
threat. The greatest large hail threat will be from northeast South
Dakota to central Minnesota where the strongest overlap of shear and
instability may result in a favorable zone for supercells. 

...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast...
Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to
the Northeast on Friday. Strong heating should result in moderate to
potentially strong instability east of the Appalachians. Shear will
be relatively weak across the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday with only
weakly organized storm expected. Strong instability and scattered
storm coverage will result in a threat for damaging wind gusts.
Farther north, from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into eastern
New York, strong shear is forecast, but instability will not be as
great. Therefore, a few more organized storms are possible, but
weaker heating/low-level lapse rates will likely be a limiting
factor to a greater severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 06/27/2025

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