MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OH…NORTHWEST PA…WESTERN NY…NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Areas affected...Northeast OH...northwest PA...western NY...northern
WV Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271647Z - 271845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has recently intensified
near/north of Cleveland. With some heating/destabilization ongoing
downstream of this cluster, maintenance or some intensification of
these storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon, with additional
development possible farther south with time across eastern OH into
western PA.
Deep-layer shear is rather weak, but MLCAPE increasing above 1500
J/kg, 20-30 kt of southwesterly flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer, and
gradually steepening low-level lapse rates could support localized
strong/damaging gusts through the afternoon. The greatest short-term
threat is expected near Lake Erie, but trends will be monitored for
a potential increase in storm coverage with time.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41888171 42188084 42637998 42667928 41827917 41387914
40907917 40587947 40138164 40598148 41018139 41278136
41428143 41888171
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH